Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, much of the focus has been on the economic production each country has managed to maintain. Both Russia and Ukraine agreed upon the “Black Sea Grain Initiative,” an agreement brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye to reintroduce regional exports to the rest of the world, especially the North African market, which was significantly affected by inflation caused by the conflict.
However, Russia demanded changes to the agreement, claiming that sanctions made it difficult for their own agricultural products to be exported via the Black Sea. Furthermore, when Putin decided to end the agreement a very negative impact came upon the international community, including China. The termination of the agreement was detrimental to China because it relies heavily on imports of agricultural products, including grains, to feed its large population. The disruption of Ukrainian grain supplies likely led to rising food prices and instability in the supply chain, affecting food security in China.
In response, Croatia offered its ports and access to the Danube for exporting Ukrainian grain. Ukrainian and Croatian diplomats celebrated the agreement and held meetings to start the necessary arrangements. Although Ukrainian grain had already passed through Croatian ports and access points, everything indicates that this agreement is more political than pragmatic or economical.
Domagoj Ferenčić, a journalist from Croatia’s most important national media outlet, Hrvatska Radiotelevizija, recently described in an article the discrepancies between Ukrainian storage and distribution requirements and Croatian capacities. In his article, titled “Transport of Ukrainian grains through Croatia may not be possible,” he wrote that industry expert Ante Klečina doesn’t believe Croatia will be able to transport more than a small fraction of the grain coming out of Ukraine: “They’re mentioning the transport of grain from Ukraine that could reach thirty, forty, or fifty million net tons of grain annually, and perhaps even more than that. Currently, given the amount of free storage space we have in our freight transport system, Croatia could transport maybe ten percent of that amount” (Ferenčić, 2023).
The primary port in Croatia, Vukovar, faces considerable logistical challenges and storage capacity limitations. Moreover, elevated logistical costs for road and rail transport further diminish profitability for Ukrainian exporters. Despite these supply-chain obstacles, why is this Croatian project being advocated as a solution? It likely reflects Croatia’s strategy to deepen integration with the European community and align with its vision.
As the last country to join the European Union and the latest formal member of the Eurozone and Schengen zone, Croatia’s decision to volunteer in the failed Black Sea Grain Initiative deal seems more about aligning with Europe symbolically. This move brings global attention to Croatia as a fully European country, thus solidifying its commitment.
Bibliography:
● Arbutina, Z. (2023, 16 August). Can Ukrainian grain be shipped to the world via Croatia? Recovered from: https://www.dw.com/en/can-ukrainian-grain-be-shipped-to-the-world-via-croatia/a-66447808
● Ferenčić, D. (2023, 25 August). Transport of Ukrainian grains through Croatia may not be possible. HRT The Voice of Croatia. Recovered from: https://glashrvatske.hrt.hr/en/domestic/transport-of-ukrainian-grains-through-croatia-may-not-be-possible-10973515
● Polityuk, P. (2023, 7 September). Ukraine says it’s shipping grain via Croatian ports. Reuters. Recovered from: Ukraine says it’s shipping grain via Croatian ports (msn.com)
● The Black Sea Grain Initiative: What it is, and why it’s important for the world. (2022, 29 September). UN News. Recovered from: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1126811